Well, it seems like our neighbors to the West think that the whole state of emergency idea isn’t something only Bangladesh should be privy to. So last night Pervez Musharraf (right) decided that it was time to go to the mattresses, and declared martial law. Like our Bangladeshi cou…er…state of emergency (still in effect), constitutional rights have been suspended and numerous arrests have been made (in the name of “corruption”, no doubt - it’s interesting that the corrupt ones are always found out when they are in opposition to the current government). Musharraf’s measures have also involved replacing the Chief Justice of the Supreme Court, shutting down land and mobile lines and taking private TV stations off the air. All this in spite of Friday’s fervorous assurances by attorney general Malik Muhammad Qayyum that “Martial law will not be imposed, not be imposed, not be imposed.”

Lest we forget, the Bangladeshi “interim” government is not entirely innocent of similar measures. Since the state of emergency was declared, there was a ban on indoor politics which was only lifted in September, albeit leaving some limits in place that make it clear who’s in control. And while we have General Moeen’s assurances to the contrary, the press itself has also not been “free”[more] during this time, especially during the recent curfew imposed to deal with Dhaka University riots (even though the government claimed the press was exempt from the curfew). The same curfew saw intentional mobile disruptions and supposedly unintentional Internet service outages for hours at a time, which were very disconcerting to all expatriates living in the country.

The two situations are not the same, however, no matter how many characteristics they share. Musharraf has been in power since the bloodless 1999 coup, and over the past few months the world has been able to witness his attempts to continue in charge. In March, he sacked Chief Justice Iftikhar Muhammad Chaudhry, the main opposer of Musharraf’s bid to extend his rule beyond the five years allowed in the 2002 referendum. It didn’t do him much good, as the Supreme Court reinstated Iftikhar in July. Musharraf swept the recent October 6 presidential elections, though these were controversial since nearly 30% of the opposition MPs had resigned in protest. Other MPs, notably those from Benazir Bhutto’s Pakistan People’s Party, abstained from voting altogether. This move was similar in many ways to the boycott of the referendum in April 2002, and history has shown just how (in)effective that was. The Supreme Court in Pakistan was considering the appeals to the election and had still not confirmed the results by the end of October. These appeals dealt with whether it was lawful or not for General Musharraf to stand for election while still heading the country’s army.

It’s unclear what effects the current state of emergency will have on the appeals being heard by the Supreme Court, but it’s obvious that removing the Chief Justice and replacing him with another is an attempt to tamper with this decision. Pakistan is also set to hold general elections (not presidential elections) in January, and the fears are that the current move by Musharraf will derail the timeline for those elections. (Update: Pakistan declared today that the schedule might be “adjusted”).

How does this affect us? Immediately the effects are mostly unseen, but I believe the rest of the world (and specifically, the economic world) will see this as further indication of instability in Pakistan and in the larger region, which will affect investment into both. Bangladesh, as the poorest nation in the region, will undoubtedly suffer some of the initial brunt in this economic slump over the next few months, adding a further burden to the country’s difficult economic situation.

Bangladesh and Pakistan both need to make serious, concerted efforts in moving towards a democratic government, elected under incontrovertibly corruption-free circumstances, or the social and economic effects of the current crises will hobble their development for years to come. We continue to pray for both countries and their leaders, that they might seek God’s guidance in their decisions, and cast off any self-serving aspirations to power.